政策与大类资产配置周观察：生于忧患

Group 1: Domestic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic stability and growth [11][12] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing income for low- and middle-income groups and promoting service consumption as a new growth driver [12][19] - The government plans to implement measures to stabilize the real estate market and capital markets, including urban renewal actions and optimizing housing policies [12][19] Group 2: International Economic Outlook - The IMF has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from earlier predictions [21][22] - The report indicates that trade tensions and policy uncertainties are significant factors contributing to the downward revision of growth expectations, particularly for the US economy [21][22] - The IMF warns that the shrinking policy buffer due to high fiscal deficits and rising debt levels makes global economies more vulnerable to future shocks [22][21] Group 3: Market Analysis - The A-share market saw a rebound, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index rising by 1.84% and 1.74% respectively, driven by increased long-term capital inflows [4] - The bond market experienced a slight tightening in liquidity, with the central bank injecting a total of 864 billion yuan during the week [4][5] - Commodity markets showed mixed trends, with non-ferrous metals rising slightly while crude oil prices fell [4]