GUOXIN MICRO(002049) 华泰证券·2025-04-29 07:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 78.00 [7][8]. Core Views - The report expresses optimism about the company's potential for performance reversal in the special integrated circuit sector, despite a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong demand recovery in the military industry, which is anticipated to lead to an increase in orders and overall market demand [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 55.11 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.26%, and a net profit of RMB 11.79 billion, down 53.43% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 includes: - Special integrated circuits: RMB 25.77 billion, down 42.57% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 71.69% [2]. - Smart security chips: RMB 26.38 billion, down 7.61% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 44.16% [2]. - Quartz crystal frequency devices: RMB 2.24 billion, up 20.93% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.56% [2]. Research and Development Summary - The company increased its R&D expense ratio to 22.22% in 2024, up 3.43 percentage points year-on-year, with notable advancements in various product lines [3]. - Key developments include the successful market launch of radiation-resistant products for aerospace applications and the mass production of automotive security chip solutions [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation Summary - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downward due to ongoing price pressures in military products and uncertainties regarding the large-scale commercialization of new smart security chip products [4][19]. - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 16.59 billion, RMB 21.02 billion, and RMB 25.94 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 21.43% and 25.84% for 2025 and 2026 compared to previous estimates [4][19]. - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 40 times for 2025, with a target price of RMB 78.00, indicating a potential upside from the current market price [4][18].