Winner Medical(300888) 华泰证券·2025-04-29 07:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 60.06 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a strong start in Q1 2025, with revenue growth accelerating. For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.98 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, and a net profit of 700 million RMB, up 19.8% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was 2.61 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.5% [1][5]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the acceleration in consumer goods and the consolidation of GRI in the medical business. The consumer goods segment is showing improvement, and the medical segment has effectively absorbed high base pressures [1][2]. Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the health lifestyle consumer goods segment achieved revenues of 4.99 billion RMB and 1.34 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 17.1% and 28.8%. Key product categories such as cotton soft towels and sanitary napkins saw significant growth, with revenues increasing by 31% and 18% respectively in 2024 [2]. Medical Supplies - The medical supplies segment reported revenues of 3.91 billion RMB in 2024 and 1.25 billion RMB in Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth of 1.1% and 46.3%. The infection protection products faced a high base pressure, with a revenue decline of 61.2% in 2024, but this pressure is gradually being absorbed [3]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.3%, primarily due to rising raw material costs. The expense ratio also decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 35.5%, benefiting from revenue growth diluting expenses [4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 upwards, with expected net profits of 1.06 billion RMB, 1.30 billion RMB, and 1.59 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The target price is based on a 33 times PE ratio for 2025 [5][9].