纸浆数据日报-20250429

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the supply - side shows a significant month - on - month increase in March's broadleaf pulp exports from major South American exporting countries and a sharp decline in the external market, weakening cost support. The demand - side sees a drop in the price and output of major wood - pulp paper this week, with paper mills making just - in - time purchases. The inventory - side shows continuous accumulation of pulp port inventory, remaining at a high level overall. The current pulp futures main contract is at a discount to the Russian needle price, with low futures valuation. In the short term, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures Prices: On April 28, 2025, SP2505 was 5430, down 0.80% day - on - day and 0.88% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5376, up 0.60% day - on - day and 0.49% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5290, down 0.60% day - on - day and 1.12% week - on - week [1]. - Spot Prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6350, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5450, unchanged; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4300, down 1.15% day - on - day and 2.27% week - on - week [1]. - External Quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 770 dollars, down 6.67% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 630 dollars, up 3.28% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 690 dollars, unchanged [1]. - Import Costs: Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5640, unchanged [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - Supply - Imports: In March 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 79.8 tons, unchanged from February; broadleaf pulp imports were 147 tons, down 8.47% from February. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1502 tons in February 2025, down 2.66% from January [1]. - Domestic Production: On April 24, 2025, broadleaf pulp production was 18.17 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 20.29 tons [1]. - Inventory - Port Inventory: On April 24, 2025, pulp port inventory was 210.6 tons [1]. - Delivery Warehouse Inventory: On April 24, 2025, it was 32.10 tons [1]. - Demand: On April 24, 2025, double - offset paper production was 19.10 tons; coated paper production was 7.80 tons; tissue paper production was 29.30 tons; white cardboard production was 30.70 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - Basis: On April 28, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 74, with a quantile level of 0.832; the Silver Star basis was 974, with a quantile level of 0.988 [1]. - Import Profit: On April 28, 2025, coniferous pulp Silver Star import profit was 61, with a quantile level of 0.724; broadleaf pulp Goldfish import profit was - 854, with a quantile level of 0.105 [1]. Strategy The short - term pulp price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].