ZZEPC(600023) 华泰证券·2025-04-29 07:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 6.89 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 88.003 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.31%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.753 billion, an increase of 18.92% [1]. - The company has a strong dividend capability with a dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 0.29 (including tax), resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 50.15% and a dividend yield of 4.97% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 12.09% year-on-year to RMB 17.602 billion, with a net profit decrease of 40.81% to RMB 1.074 billion, primarily due to a larger-than-expected decline in investment income from joint ventures [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's controllable and joint venture thermal power net profit for 2024 is estimated at approximately RMB 6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45%, driven by a 94% increase in net profit from controllable thermal power [2]. - The estimated net profit per kilowatt-hour for controllable thermal power in 2024 and Q1 2025 is 3.5 and 1.2 cents respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% for 2024 and a decrease of 1.2% for Q1 2025 [2]. Investment Income - The investment income from joint ventures for 2024 was RMB 3.766 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with significant contributions from nuclear power, gas turbines, and coal machines [3]. - In Q1 2025, the investment income from joint ventures dropped by 32% to RMB 841 million, mainly due to pressure on the utilization hours and electricity prices of some joint venture power plants [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s average on-grid electricity price for 2025-2026 has been revised down by 11.0% and 11.3%, leading to a reduction in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 12.0% and 13.3% to RMB 7.105 billion and RMB 7.199 billion respectively [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.53, 0.54, and 0.55 respectively, with a target price based on a 13x PE ratio for 2025 [4].