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福能股份:2024年年报点评首次覆盖风况好转,首提中期分红-20250429

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 13.08, compared to the current price of RMB 9.96 [1][6][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from improved wind conditions, with onshore and offshore wind utilization hours increasing by 152 and 421 hours year-on-year, respectively, leading to a positive outlook for performance recovery [1][6][13]. - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 14.56 billion, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 6.5% to RMB 2.79 billion [6][13]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows promising results with revenue of RMB 3.1 billion, up 0.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 42.8% to RMB 750 million, driven by strong wind resources [6][13]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates that the company’s revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2024 but is expected to grow significantly in the following years, reaching RMB 18.44 billion by 2027, representing a growth of 17.6% [4][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from RMB 2.79 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.73 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.1% [4][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB 1.00 in 2024 to RMB 1.34 in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4][7]. Future Growth Potential - The company has a robust pipeline of future projects, including a combined heat and power (CHP) project and offshore wind projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to net profits in 2026 and 2027 [6][14]. - The anticipated internal rates of return (IRR) for the CHP projects are 12.55% and 17.73%, indicating strong potential for profitability [6][14]. - The company plans to initiate a mid-term dividend of no less than 10% in 2025, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns while pursuing growth [6][14].