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生益电子(688183):AI服务器驱动业绩高增,下半年新产能新客户有望持续贡献增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.579 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 78.55% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 200 million yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 656.87% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 37.63% [1]. - The report highlights strong growth driven by AI server demand, with expectations for new capacity and customers to continue contributing to revenue growth in the second half of the year [1][7]. - The company is experiencing significant improvements in product structure and profitability, with a gross margin of 29.84% and a net margin of 12.67% in Q1 2025, reflecting a substantial increase from previous periods [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A at 4.687 billion yuan, 2025E at 7.549 billion yuan, 2026E at 10.024 billion yuan, and 2027E at 11.654 billion yuan, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 43.2%, 61.1%, 32.8%, and 16.3% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 332 million yuan in 2024A to 1.988 billion yuan in 2027E, with year-over-year growth rates of 1,428.2%, 206.5%, 55.8%, and 25.4% [3]. - The report indicates a significant increase in R&D investment, reaching 91 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 87.08% year-over-year, aimed at supporting the development of next-generation AI servers and high-speed switches [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth of the AI industry, with expectations for continued demand for AI servers and high-speed switches, particularly as major clients like Amazon ramp up production of AI-related products [7]. - The report anticipates that the company's capacity expansion and successful project progress in high-speed switches will drive sustained revenue growth, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 1.017 billion yuan, 1.585 billion yuan, and 1.988 billion yuan respectively [7].