新宝股份（002705）：外销高景气延续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth in exports, with Q1 2025 external sales reaching 2.98 billion (up 16% year-on-year) [5] - Domestic sales in Q1 2025 were 860 million (down 5% year-on-year), showing a narrowing decline compared to Q4 [5] - The company plans to increase its investment in its Indonesian subsidiary by 50 million to strengthen its overseas supply chain capabilities [5] - The company has successfully expanded its product categories, with kitchen appliances and home appliances showing year-on-year revenue growth of 16% and 17% respectively in 2024 [5] - The company expects to benefit from domestic subsidies and a recovery in brand positioning, particularly in its self-owned brands [8] Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 3.834 billion (up 10.4% year-on-year), with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 247 million (up 43.0% year-on-year) [6] - For the full year 2024, total revenue was 16.821 billion (up 14.8% year-on-year), with a net profit of 1.053 billion (up 7.7% year-on-year) [6] - The company reported a cash dividend of 4.5 per 10 shares (including tax), resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 42% [6] Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, the gross margin increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year and 3.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating an improvement in profitability [7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 20.9%, reflecting a decrease due to increased export ratios and intensified domestic competition [7] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 19 billion, 20.9 billion, and 22.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.8%, 10.2%, and 9.1% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.178 billion, 1.309 billion, and 1.435 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 11.9%, 11.2%, and 9.6% respectively [10]