银行业周报：政治局会议释放积极信号-20250429

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the banking sector, emphasizing the investment value of high-dividend, low-valuation bank stocks, particularly focusing on China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [1][2]. Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting has signaled a more proactive macroeconomic policy, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which are expected to enhance liquidity and support the banking sector [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting technological innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade, which will improve banks' ability to serve the real economy [2][3]. - The banking sector is currently facing uncertainties due to U.S.-China trade negotiations, but the high dividend yield of bank stocks remains attractive for investors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector Performance - The banking index decreased by 0.32% this week, underperforming the Wind All A Index, which rose by 1.15% [11][12]. - Among different types of banks, state-owned banks saw an average increase of 0.89%, while joint-stock banks experienced an average decline of 1.28% [11][14]. Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 500 billion yuan, indicating a continued effort to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [3][29]. - The report notes a decrease in SHIBOR overnight rates to 1.57%, reflecting a broader trend of declining interest rates in the interbank market [32][33]. Bond Market - The bond market saw a total financing of 22,454.7 billion yuan this week, with a net financing of 1,215.2 billion yuan, indicating a decrease compared to the previous week [40][44]. - The report highlights that the issuance of financial bonds and medium-term notes has increased, contributing to the overall financing activity in the bond market [40][44]. Individual Bank Performance - Agricultural Bank of China recorded the highest stock price increase among state-owned banks at 2.40%, while joint-stock banks generally underperformed, with an average decline of 1.28% [14][27]. - The report also notes that the average P/B ratio for state-owned banks is 0.69X, indicating potential undervaluation in the sector [17][27].