银行业深度报告：外围扰动，红利强盾

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to show stable performance in 2024, with a projected increase in net profit growth and a reduction in liability pressure. As of April 17, 2024, 26 listed banks reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.88% and a net profit growth of 5.29% in Q4 2024 [3][12]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies such as potential interest rate cuts and increased investment in state-owned banks to support economic stability amid external uncertainties [3][27]. - The banking sector is likely to attract risk-averse capital due to its defensive characteristics and stable dividends, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamentals - In Q4 2024, 26 listed banks achieved a total revenue of 5.21 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.36%. However, net profit reached 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [12][23]. - The net interest income for 2024 decreased by 2.03%, but showed a positive growth of 0.39% in Q4, indicating a recovery trend [17][19]. - Loan issuance for 2024 reached 158.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.97%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to 2023 [17][23]. 2. Policy Environment - The report emphasizes the need for further policy support to stabilize the economy, particularly through potential interest rate cuts and increased focus on domestic demand [27][36]. - The government aims to enhance consumer spending and investment through various initiatives, including special bonds to support consumption and infrastructure projects [42][44]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to inject 500 billion yuan into major state-owned banks to strengthen their capacity to serve the real economy [45][46]. 3. Financial Environment - The banking sector is expected to continue receiving inflows of risk-averse capital, particularly as external market conditions remain volatile [3][37]. - The report notes that the average net interest margin for 26 listed banks in 2024 was 1.64%, a decrease from the previous year, but with expectations of gradual recovery as loan re-pricing pressures ease [19][21]. - The average non-performing loan ratio for these banks improved to 1.15% in 2024, indicating better asset quality management [23][26].