XIAOMI(01810) 长江证券·2025-04-29 11:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [11][13]. Core Insights - The "Self-Pleasing" new consumption concept supports the successful launch of the SU7, with the YU7 expected to replicate this success. Xiaomi is accelerating its layout of extended-range models, entering a strong product cycle, and is expected to achieve rapid sales of one million vehicles. Based on Xiaomi's steady growth trend in high-end penetration in its smartphone and IoT businesses, as well as the rapid ramp-up of its automotive segment, the projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated to be 35.404 billion, 51.653 billion, and 65.531 billion yuan respectively [4][11]. Summary by Sections SU7 Initial Success and YU7 Potential - The 200,000 to 300,000 yuan price segment for cars is continuously expanding, with the SU7 positioned accurately and establishing a mid-to-high-end brand tone, achieving an average monthly sales of 23,000 units since its launch. The YU7 is expected to target a larger market and leverage its comprehensive strengths to potentially become another bestseller [7][34]. Xiaomi's Methodology and Automotive Success - Xiaomi's success in the smartphone and IoT sectors has led to the development of a unique "User + Product + Technology + Efficiency" methodology. This includes a large fan base, self-developed motor and control technology, supply chain management to reduce production costs, and a focus on creating blockbuster products [8][9]. Strong Model Cycle and Sales Projections - The high-end market is expanding, with significant opportunities for domestic alternatives in the electric and intelligent vehicle sectors. The projected sales for the high-end passenger car market (priced above 200,000 yuan) in 2024 is 9.443 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The CAGR for high-end market sales from 2020 to 2024 is 14.6%, with domestic brands expected to capture a growing market share [9][10]. Brand Synergy and Ecosystem Integration - The launch of the SU7 not only marks the realization of Xiaomi's car manufacturing plans but also extends its "Smartphone + AIoT" ecosystem strategy into the automotive sector. The interconnected ecosystem enhances user stickiness and drives revenue growth across other product lines, with the lifetime value of automotive users exceeding 230,000 yuan [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for Xiaomi to replicate Tesla's profitability rhythm, with expectations for the automotive segment to turn profitable by 2025, and a projected net profit per vehicle exceeding 10,000 yuan [9][10].