ENN ENERGY(02688) 交银国际·2025-04-29 12:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, New Energy (2688 HK), with a target price of HKD 74.60, indicating a potential upside of 21.4% from the current price of HKD 61.45 [4][9]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw gas sales remain stable, influenced by a warm winter, with retail gas volume showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, outperforming the mainland's natural gas apparent consumption decline of 2.2% [2][7]. - The management indicated that the warm winter impacted gas sales by approximately 2-3 percentage points, with residential gas sales increasing by 1.1% year-on-year [2][7]. - The privatization plan is progressing steadily, with expectations to seek shareholder approval in the fourth quarter of this year [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 113,858 million - 2024: RMB 109,853 million - 2025E: RMB 116,552 million (6.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 122,701 million - 2027E: RMB 129,239 million [3][11]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 6,816 million - 2024: RMB 5,987 million - 2025E: RMB 7,174 million (3.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 7,782 million - 2027E: RMB 8,098 million [3][11]. - The company is expected to maintain moderate profit growth over the next three years, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% from 2024 to 2027 [7][8]. Operational Performance - The company’s retail gas sales volume is projected to grow as follows: - 2023: 25,145 million cubic meters - 2024: 26,200 million cubic meters - 2025E: 26,782 million cubic meters (2.2% growth) - 2026E: 27,588 million cubic meters - 2027E: 28,421 million cubic meters [8]. - The company has also seen a 9.9% year-on-year increase in its diversified energy sales volume, reaching 100 billion kWh in the first quarter [7][8]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 68,286.31 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 79.30 and a low of HKD 45.25 [6][9]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 10.03% [6].