TongQingLou Catering (605108) 东吴证券·2025-04-29 13:50Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The banquet demand is recovering, and attention should be paid to the performance release of new stores [7] - The company is expected to benefit from its established brand in the banquet catering market and the ongoing expansion of its restaurant and hotel operations [7] - The new store openings are anticipated to improve performance, although initial losses from these stores may impact overall profitability [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,401 million, with a year-on-year growth of 43.76%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 2,525 million, reflecting a 5.14% increase [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 304.11 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 224.91%. However, for 2024, it is expected to drop to 100.08 million, a decrease of 67.09% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 1.17, which is expected to decline to 0.38 in 2024 before recovering to 0.85 in 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 52.81 for 2024, decreasing to 23.89 in 2025 and further to 14.60 in 2026 [1] Store Expansion and Performance - The company plans to open 4 new restaurant locations in 2024, including 3 banquet halls and 1 wedding banquet center, with a total area increase of 46% [7] - By the end of 2024, the company will have 127 direct-operated stores, with a mix of brands including Tongqinglou and Fumao [7] - The capital expenditure for 2025 is planned between 500 to 700 million, with expectations to open 3 to 5 new restaurant locations and upgrade 20 existing stores [7] Market and Demand Outlook - The banquet demand is expected to recover in 2025, which is a double-spring year, leading to improved performance as new stores ramp up operations [7] - The company anticipates that the performance of new stores will gradually improve, alleviating some of the profit pressure caused by initial losses [7]