PDH(600048) 民生证券·2025-04-29 13:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][5] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit due to reduced project turnover, with total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, down 10.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.00 billion yuan, down 58.56% year-on-year [1][4] - Despite the challenges, the company remains the industry leader in sales, achieving a sales contract amount of 323.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.5% year-on-year, while maintaining a market share of 7.1% in 38 core cities [2][4] - The company's debt structure has improved, with interest-bearing liabilities reduced by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, and a cash balance of 134.2 billion yuan, indicating a strong liquidity position [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 10.14% compared to the previous year, primarily due to a decline in project turnover [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.00 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 58.56% year-on-year, largely due to impairment provisions totaling approximately 5.5 billion yuan [1][6] Sales Performance - The company achieved a signed area of 17.97 million square meters in 2024, down 24.7% year-on-year, but still led the industry in sales amount [2] - The sales amount for the year was 323.03 billion yuan, maintaining the top position in the industry for two consecutive years [2] Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, the company reduced its interest-bearing debt by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, marking two consecutive years of debt reduction [3] - The asset-liability ratio decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 74.3%, achieving a four-year consecutive decline [3] Land Acquisition and Development - The company expanded its land acquisition with a total land price of 68.3 billion yuan in 2024, focusing 99% of its investment in 38 core cities [4] - The land reserve as of the end of 2024 was approximately 62.58 million square meters, with a 20% reduction in existing project area compared to the beginning of the year [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 319.31 billion yuan, 327.93 billion yuan, and 337.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 2.7%, and 3.1% [4][6]