GUJING(000596) 民生证券·2025-04-29 14:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience as a leading Anhui liquor brand, achieving a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan for 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 16.41% and 20.22% respectively, despite not meeting the annual revenue target of 24.45 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 26 billion yuan, 28.737 billion yuan, and 31.841 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.3% to 10.8% [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.509 billion yuan and a net profit of 771 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.85% and a slight decline in net profit of 0.74% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.330 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.38% and 12.78% respectively [2]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio reached 57.49% in 2024, up by 5.66 percentage points from the previous year, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.51% [2]. Product Performance - The main liquor business generated a revenue of 22.865 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 81.71%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.93 percentage points [3][5]. - The "Year Original" product line led the revenue growth with 18.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.31%, driven by an 11.99% increase in volume and a 4.75% increase in price [5]. Regional and Channel Performance - Revenue from different regions showed growth, with North China, Central China, South China, and international markets achieving revenues of 1.979 billion yuan, 20.151 billion yuan, 1.426 billion yuan, and 22 million yuan respectively [5]. - Online and offline channels reported revenues of 772 million yuan and 22.806 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 5.81% and 16.81% respectively [5]. Profitability and Efficiency - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 79.90%, with a slight increase in the fourth quarter to 80.74% [6]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 23.40%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.74 percentage points [6][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its strong performance with a projected net profit of 6.165 billion yuan in 2025, growing at a rate of 11.7% [8][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 14 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [7][8].