东鹏控股（003012）：价格战延续中，等待行业企稳

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved an annual revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 330 million yuan, down 54% year-on-year [2][4]. - In the first quarter, the company reported a revenue of 1 billion yuan, a decline of 2% year-on-year, with a net profit of -30 million yuan, a decrease of 164% year-on-year [2][4]. - The ongoing price war in the industry is expected to continue, with a significant impact on profitability and revenue [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 17%, with tile revenue down 18% due to weak terminal demand and a 9% decrease in tile sales volume [11]. - The average price of tiles fell by approximately 10%, while production costs decreased by 7%, leading to a decline in gross margin from 33.5% in 2023 to 31.0% in 2024 [11]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is estimated to be around 5.1%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Market Conditions - The first quarter showed a slight recovery in revenue decline, but profitability remains under pressure due to the ongoing price war [11]. - The construction area is expected to decline by about 28% in 2024, impacting overall demand in the industry [11]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 340 million yuan and 480 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to valuation multiples of 21 and 15 times [6]. - The cash flow performance is strong, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 860 million yuan in 2024 [11]. Industry Dynamics - The supply side of the tile industry is experiencing significant exits, with production expected to decrease by 12% in 2024 compared to previous years [11]. - Environmental policies are pushing the industry towards green production and smart manufacturing, which may further influence supply dynamics [11].