INDUSTRIAL BANK(601166) 浙商证券·2025-04-30 00:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's asset quality continues to improve, with a TTM real non-performing loan generation rate of 1.24%, a decrease of 16 basis points from the previous quarter, maintaining the improvement trend since Q3 2024 [1][5] - Revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 decreased by 3.6% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a shift from growth to decline compared to 2024 [2][6] - The average net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.80%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but showed a rebound of 2 basis points compared to Q4 2024, primarily due to a significant decrease in the interest rate paid on deposits [3] - The bank's financial investment balance reached 3.55 trillion, demonstrating resilience amid challenges in the bond market [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q1 2025 revenue was 55,683 million, down 3.6% year-on-year, while net profit was 23,796 million, down 2.2% year-on-year [12] - The non-performing loan ratio increased by 1 basis point to 1.08% at the end of Q1 2025, while the attention loan ratio remained stable at 1.71% [1][5] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are -1.16%, 0.41%, and 2.25%, respectively, with corresponding BPS of 39.20, 41.64, and 44.16 [6] - The target price is set at 25.82 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2025 PB of 0.66, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price [6] Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality is on an improving path, with a focus on real estate and credit card risk generation, while retail remains under slight pressure [5] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 4 percentage points to 233% at the end of Q1 2025 [1][5]