万联晨会-20250430

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a collective decline in the A-share market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05% to 3286.65 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index also down by 0.05% [1][6] - The report notes a significant increase in the inbound tourism market in China, with an expected daily average of 2.15 million inbound and outbound travelers during the upcoming "May Day" holiday, representing a year-on-year growth of 27% [2][7] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Marubi Biotechnology (丸美生物), with a 33.44% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 2.97 billion yuan, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, up 31.69% [8][12] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of 1.02 trillion yuan, with sectors such as beauty care, machinery, and media leading the gains, while public utilities, oil and petrochemicals, and coal sectors lagged [1][6] - The report indicates that the online sales channel for Marubi achieved a revenue of 2.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.77%, accounting for 85.61% of total revenue [9][12] Company Analysis - Marubi's main brand generated 2.06 billion yuan in revenue, representing a 31.69% increase, while its second brand, PL, achieved 905 million yuan, up 40.72% [9][12] - The gross margin for Marubi improved to 73.70% in 2024 and 76.05% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.01 percentage points and 1.45 percentage points, respectively [10][12] - The company is transitioning from a traditional cosmetics firm to a biotechnology cosmetics company, focusing on key technologies and core raw material research, particularly in recombinant collagen technology [11][12] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report adjusts profit forecasts for Marubi, estimating net profits of 411 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 537 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.40%, 15.75%, and 12.69% respectively [12]