CRCC(601186) 国盛证券·2025-04-30 03:27Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (601186.SH) [4][6] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance remains under pressure due to fluctuating gross margins and a need for improvement in traditional infrastructure investments. However, cash flow has shown some improvement [1][2] - The company has a substantial backlog of contracts, amounting to 78,613 billion, which is 7.4 times the revenue expected for 2024, indicating a strong order book that could stabilize future revenue as new funding sources are deployed [1] - New contracts in emerging sectors such as mining and electricity have seen significant growth, while overseas orders continue to increase [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 256.8 billion, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.15 billion, down 14.5% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.51%, a decline of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio improved slightly to 4.15% [2] - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 38.95 billion, which is an improvement compared to a larger outflow in the previous year [2] Contract and Order Summary - In Q1 2025, the new contract value was 492.8 billion, down 10.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure projects accounting for 85% of the total new contracts [3] - Emerging engineering orders, particularly in railways, mining, and electricity, have seen substantial increases, with growth rates of 66%, 139%, and 29% respectively [3] - Domestic and overseas new contract values were 448.7 billion and 44.2 billion respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 13% for domestic contracts but a 30% increase for overseas contracts [3] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 21.5 billion, 21.6 billion, and 21.9 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.58, 1.59, and 1.61 [4]