Aier(300015) 花旗·2025-04-30 02:07Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to Aier Eye Hospital Group due to missed expectations and lack of growth visibility [16][5][12]. Core Insights - Aier reported FY24 revenue of Rmb21 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of Rmb3.6 billion, reflecting a 5.9% year-over-year growth, which was below consensus estimates [1][5]. - The company experienced a significant contraction in gross profit margin in 4Q24, dropping to 38.0% from 47.0% in 4Q23, attributed to increased promotions and lower margins from newly consolidated hospitals [2][5]. - Management indicated that while there was strong growth in January and February 2025, the overall growth prospects for FY25 remain uncertain due to market conditions [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 net profit was Rmb3.6 billion, with a diluted EPS of Rmb0.385, representing a 5.9% growth [6]. - The company expects revenue growth to be driven primarily by small hospitals in the domestic market, while overseas expansion lacks visibility [4][5]. - The target price is maintained at Rmb7, with the stock trading at a P/E ratio of 28x for FY25, indicating a stretched valuation given the limited growth visibility [5][17]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY25E and FY26E have been fine-tuned, with projected revenues of Rmb23.1 billion and Rmb24.9 billion respectively [5][12]. - The report anticipates a core net profit of Rmb4.3 billion for FY25E, reflecting a 20.7% growth [6][12].