KEHUA HENGSHENG(002335) 高盛·2025-04-30 02:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kstar and Envicool, while Kehua is rated as "Neutral" [2][11]. Core Insights - The data center supply chain in China is experiencing strong demand, with expectations for continued capacity expansion through 2025 and potentially into 2026, despite challenges such as overseas chip supply constraints [1][5]. - The report has revised earnings per share (EPS) estimates downward by 17%-31% for Kstar, Envicool, and Kehua, primarily due to uncertainties in domestic solar inverter and energy storage system (ESS) demand, as well as intense pricing competition [1][7]. - Kstar is favored over Kehua due to its faster long-term growth potential, better margin profile, and more attractive valuation metrics [2][5]. Kstar Summary - Kstar's sales and net income for 4Q24 decreased by 9% and 76% year-over-year, respectively, while 1Q25 showed a 14% increase in sales but a 17% decrease in net income [5][8]. - The company anticipates 30%-50% year-over-year order growth from domestic internet and telecom customers in 2025, with significant opportunities for customer base expansion [6][9]. - Kstar's total revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 4.159 billion in 2024 to Rmb 9.642 billion by 2030, with a net income increase from Rmb 394 million to Rmb 1.455 billion over the same period [10]. Envicool Summary - Envicool's 4Q24 and 1Q25 results missed expectations due to delayed revenue recognition and increased operating expenses, leading to a 31% downward revision in EPS estimates [11][15]. - The data center room cooling segment saw sales growth of 49% in 2024, with a record high order backlog by 1Q25, indicating strong demand [13][14]. - Envicool's total revenue is expected to rise from Rmb 3.529 billion in 2024 to Rmb 4.589 billion in 2025, with net profit projected to increase from Rmb 344 million to Rmb 453 million [16].