花旗：全球股票策略-言辞缓和，市场企稳，盈利调整

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on Technology and upgrades Autos to Overweight within Cyclical Value, while Underweighting Construction, Energy, Telecoms, and Utilities [2][7][24]. Core Insights - European equities have stabilized amid moderating trade rhetoric from the Trump Administration, but EPS downgrades are accelerating, with the Earnings Revision Index (ERI) at "recessionary" levels around -60% [2][4][3]. - Historically, such negative ERI readings have been contrarian buy signals, with European equities averaging 25% returns over the following 12 months [4][8]. - The ongoing Q1 reporting season shows 61% of Stoxx 600 companies exceeding EPS expectations, indicating low expectations overall [5][6]. Summary by Sections Earnings - The ERI for Europe is at -61%, the lowest since COVID, indicating widespread downgrades across sectors, with expectations of further downgrades averaging around 20% [15][16]. - Analysts expect a 6 percentage point drag on MSCI ACWI EPS growth due to proposed tariffs, aligning with a global EPS growth forecast of +4% for 2025 [6][27]. Market Views & Sector Strategy - The report suggests that trading conditions may remain volatile due to macro and policy uncertainties, but there is potential for a 5-10% upside for European equities by year-end [7][24]. - The report recommends a balanced approach with Overweights in Tech and Autos, while maintaining Overweights in traditional Defensives like Health Care and Personal Care [2][7]. Valuation - The Pan-European Stoxx 600 index trades at a 12-month forward PE of 13-14x, in line with its long-run median, while traditional Cyclicals are trading at the lowest valuations [85][86]. - The report notes that the current 27% discount of Europe to the US remains significant despite narrowing [85][86].