CGS(601881) 华泰证券·2025-04-30 03:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the A-shares and an "Overweight" rating for the H-shares of the company [9]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 7.558 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 4.77% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 9.87%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.016 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 84.86% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.67% [1][2]. - The company's investment income saw significant growth, with brokerage, investment banking, and asset management businesses continuing to expand [1][4]. - The report highlights a slight increase in leverage, with the leverage ratio reaching 4.09x at the end of Q1 2025, which is a year-over-year decrease of 0.41x but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.02x [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 investment income was 3.156 billion RMB, accounting for 42% of total revenue, with a year-over-year increase of 93.74% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.52% [2]. - Brokerage business net income for Q1 2025 was 1.922 billion RMB, up 53.05% year-over-year but down 22.99% quarter-over-quarter. Asset management net income was 131 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 19.31% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.38% [3]. Investment Banking Performance - The investment banking segment reported a net income of 151 million RMB in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 59.48% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 37.05%. The underwriting scale for equity business was 1.5 billion RMB, with a market share of 1.0% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 11.349 billion RMB for 2025, with EPS estimates of 1.04 RMB for 2025 [5][20]. - The target prices are set at 20.06 RMB for A-shares and 9.10 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a premium PB valuation of 1.9x for A-shares and 0.8x for H-shares [5][10].