HTSC(601688) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-30 05:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 82.3 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.0% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 36.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.7% [2] - The company's weighted ROE (annualized) for Q1 2025 was 2.10%, up by 0.73 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025E, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 40,094 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.3% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025E is projected to be 14,597 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [3] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 1.62 yuan [3] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 9.80 for 2025E [3] - The company’s P/B ratio is expected to be 0.83 for 2025E [3] Market Position and Business Segments - The company maintained a high market share of 7% in margin financing and securities lending (two-in-one business) [7] - The company’s securities main business revenue for Q1 2025 was 72.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29% [7] - The company’s investment income for Q1 2025 was significantly boosted by a 319% year-on-year increase in net interest income [7] - The company’s investment leverage has increased compared to 2024, with total assets at 823.3 billion yuan, a 1% increase from the end of 2024 [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The report revises the 2025E profit forecast upwards while lowering the forecasts for 2026E and 2027E due to competitive impacts from industry peers [7] - The expected net profits for 2025-2027E are 146.0 billion yuan, 161.2 billion yuan, and 170.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4.9%, +10.4%, and +5.8% [7]