ZTE(000063) 长城证券·2025-04-30 07:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is experiencing steady revenue recovery, with a projected revenue of 124.25 billion yuan in 2023, slightly increasing to 150.12 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% from 2025 to 2027 [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 9.33 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.43 billion yuan in 2024, before gradually increasing to 9.46 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a focus on long-term growth despite short-term challenges [1]. - The company is undergoing a structural transformation, shifting from a primary focus on operator networks to a collaborative development model involving "network + computing power + terminals," with over 35% of revenue coming from the second curve business [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decrease by 2.4% in 2024, followed by a recovery with a growth rate of 7.0% in 2025 and maintaining similar growth rates through 2027 [1]. - The gross margin is under pressure during the transformation phase, with a reported gross margin of 34.27% in Q1 2025, down 7.75 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense competition in the computing power and terminal markets [2]. - The company anticipates that the computing power business will become a major growth driver, particularly with the launch of DeepSeek, which is expected to shift demand from training to inference, thus expanding the market size [2]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for the company is 8.58 billion yuan in 2025, 8.88 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.46 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.5, 16.9, and 15.9 respectively [3][4].