Tuopu Group(601689) 光大证券·2025-04-30 09:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a robust performance in 2024, with total revenue projected to increase by 35.0% year-on-year to 26.6 billion yuan and net profit expected to rise by 39.5% to 3.0 billion yuan [1][4]. - Short-term profitability may fluctuate due to a decline in sales from major clients and increased costs associated with new factories and business development, but the long-term growth potential in smart vehicles and robotics remains strong [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin is expected to decrease by 2.1 percentage points to 20.8%, while the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio is projected to decline by 1.1 percentage points to 8.0% [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is anticipated to show a slight year-on-year increase of 1.4% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 20.4%, amounting to 5.7 billion yuan in net profit, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 12.4% [1][2]. Business Segments - The automotive electronics segment is experiencing high growth, with revenue expected to increase by 906% to 1.8 billion yuan. Other segments, including interior functional parts and chassis systems, are also showing steady growth [2]. - The robotics segment is beginning to contribute positively to profits, with the electric drive system achieving a gross margin of 50.9% in 2024 [2][3]. Global Expansion and Strategic Positioning - The company is accelerating its global footprint, with plans to add a third closed air suspension production line in 2025 and new factories in Mexico and Thailand set to commence operations in 2024 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The dual-platform strategy in smart vehicles and robotics is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge, with significant client partnerships established with major automotive brands [3]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report projects a decline in net profit margin to 10.0% in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [10]. - Key valuation metrics include a projected P/E ratio of 27 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 4.1, indicating a favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [11].