SPZP(300616) 光大证券·2025-04-30 14:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The home furnishing industry continues to undergo deep adjustments, with the company's performance under pressure in 2024, but profitability is expected to improve significantly in Q1 2025 [1][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.79 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -220 million yuan [1][4] - The company is actively transitioning from direct sales to franchising and expanding its overseas presence, with overseas revenue increasing by 39% year-on-year to 16.86 million yuan in 2024 [4][6] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 3.79 billion yuan, down 22.7% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 revenue at 1.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.8% [1][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 740 million yuan, a decline of 4.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of -38.86 million yuan [1][4] Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from customized home furnishings and supporting home furnishings in 2024 was 2.72 billion yuan and 490 million yuan, respectively, down 22.5% and 31.3% year-on-year [4] - Revenue by region in 2024 showed declines in South China (-8.4%), East China (-35.2%), North China (-27.5%), and Central China (-32.7%) [4] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin in 2024 was 33.1%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with customized furniture and supporting home furnishings gross margins at 31.8% and 21.2%, respectively [5] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 35.2%, an increase of 7.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 39.1%, down 2.1 percentage points [5] Future Projections - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 4.01 billion yuan and 4.27 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 15% and 18% [6] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 78 million yuan and 152 million yuan, respectively, with EPS projections of 0.35 yuan and 0.68 yuan [6][8]