瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250506

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the industry is facing supply - demand imbalances. Supply has decreased due to widespread device maintenance in the industry, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia. Demand is weak, with downstream enterprises, particularly crystal - pulling companies, showing strong wait - and - see attitudes and low procurement willingness. The industry inventory pressure remains high, mainly concentrated in polysilicon manufacturers. It is recommended to temporarily observe the polysilicon market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 36,410 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan; the main contract position is 53,823 lots, down 443 lots. The 06 - 07 month contract spread is 1,650 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 28,085 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feed polysilicon is 35 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.49 US dollars/kg, down 0.09 US dollars. The basis of polysilicon is 3,255 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,325 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the spot price is 9,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory is 603,000 tons, up 1,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 7.8444 million kilowatts, up 1.1443 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 units, up 24,038,530 units; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 units, down 2,122,260 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/unit, up 0.01 US dollars. The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, with different types of polysilicon having stable mainstream market prices [2]. Industry News - On the macro - level, the state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. On the fundamental level, in terms of supply, more than half of the enterprises in the industry are carrying out device maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia. In terms of demand, the downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, with downstream enterprises expecting future silicon material prices to fall and waiting for price stability to replenish inventory. The industry inventory pressure is high, mainly concentrated in manufacturers [2].