瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250506

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows a decline, with a slight drop in the production of secondary refined lead and electrolytic lead. The price of 1 lead dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and the price of waste batteries was adjusted by 20 - 200 yuan/ton. - The demand side is affected by the off - season, with tight supply circulation, low inventory arrivals for some smelters, and reduced purchasing volume and light trading for recyclers. It is expected that the price of waste batteries will remain stable with a weakening trend in the short term. - Overall, the change in supply - side production is not significant, the demand side remains weak, downstream manufacturers are still waiting and watching, and high foreign inventories suppress the upward movement of lead prices. It is recommended to lightly short the Shanghai lead main contract 2506 at around 17,000 yuan/ton, with a stop - loss at 17,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,977 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton. - The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the Shanghai lead open interest was 66,347 lots, a decrease of 56 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 547 lots, an increase of 665 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 38,675 tons, an increase of 277 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 46,786 tons, an increase of 1,132 tons; the LME lead inventory was 267,275 tons, a decrease of 3,750 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 11.35 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.51 US dollars/ton. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,179 yuan, an increase of 76 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 54.41%, an increase of 18.29 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 73.69%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 32,400 tons, an increase of 400 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,075 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The export volume of batteries was 41,450,000 units, a decrease of 425,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,581.51 points, an increase of 26.97 points; the monthly automobile output was 3,044,600 vehicles, a decrease of 454,000 vehicles. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,647,000 vehicles, an increase of 73,000 vehicles [2]. 3.6行业消息 - The US April ISM non - manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April, and the index measuring service input prices jumped to 65.1, the highest since January 2023. - Regarding tariffs, India proposed zero - tariff treatment for a certain amount of US auto parts and steel; the US rejected Japan's request for a full exemption from the 10% reciprocal tariff; the White House has not made a final decision on movie tariffs; Trump will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. - The US provided a $1,000 subsidy to encourage immigrants to leave voluntarily. The initial jobless claims in the week ending April 26 were 241,000, the highest since the week of February 22, 2025. - The Kremlin said that Putin accepted Modi's invitation to visit India [2].