瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, a 1.5 - point decline from the previous month, and the overall economic climate level has declined. The lithium ore price is in a weak - running state, and the supply of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to decrease slightly. The demand growth rate of downstream processing enterprises for lithium carbonate is expected to slow down, and the market supply - demand pattern remains oversupplied. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position, weak - oscillating trading and control risks [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position, weak - oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 65,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan; the position volume was 256,291 lots, an increase of 11,562 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 1,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 33,477 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 65,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan; the basis of the main Li₂CO₃ contract was 2,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 788 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 7,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 2,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan [2]. 3.1.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 43,180 tons, an increase of 7,490 tons; the monthly import volume was 18,125.49 tons, an increase of 5,797.53 tons; the monthly export volume was 220.03 tons, a decrease of 197.10 tons; the enterprise operating rate was 50%, an increase of 8 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of power batteries was 118,300 MWh, an increase of 18,000 MWh. The prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and various ternary materials remained unchanged [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 48%, an increase of 8 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 57%, unchanged [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,277,000 units, an increase of 389,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,237,000 units, an increase of 345,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 41.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 3,075,000 units, an increase of 985,000 units; the monthly export volume was 158,000 units, an increase of 27,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 441,000 units, an increase of 134,000 units [2]. 3.1.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position was 119,464 lots, an increase of 4,381 lots; the total put position was 46,151 lots, an increase of 1,408 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 38.63%, a decrease of 0.2472 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility was 0.26%, an increase of 0.0070 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - From April 1 - 27, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 1.391 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%; the cumulative retail volume this year was 6.518 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The retail volume of the national new energy passenger car market was 728,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%; the cumulative retail volume this year was 3.148 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33% [2]. - During the "May Day" holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous. The sales volume of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The subsidy application volume for car trade - ins exceeded 60,000, driving new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan; consumers purchased 3.56 million household appliances, driving sales of 11.9 billion yuan; they purchased 2.42 million digital products such as mobile phones, driving sales of 6.4 billion yuan [2]. - BYD's new energy vehicle sales in April were 380,100 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.33%. The cumulative sales from January to April were 1.3809 million units, a year - on - year increase of 46.98% [2]. - During the two - day "May Day" holiday, the charging volume of new energy vehicles at national highway service areas reached 15.9 million kWh, a 28% increase from the same period last year [2]. - During the "May Day" period, nearly 100 auto shows were held in over 80 cities across the country. New energy vehicles became the main force driving consumption, and their transaction proportion at auto shows in many places exceeded 60% [2]. - In April, XPeng delivered 35,000 new cars, a year - on - year increase of 273%; Li Auto delivered 33,900 cars, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%; Xiaomi Auto delivered over 28,000 units, and the SU7 Ultra dual - duct front hood version began to be delivered successively; Leapmotor delivered 41,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 173%; NIO delivered 23,900 new cars, a year - on - year increase of 53% [2]. - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - point decrease from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, a 0.4 - point decrease from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.2%, a 1.2 - point decrease from the previous month [2]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - The lithium carbonate main contract showed a downward - oscillating trend, with an increase in position volume, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declined in April due to the high base formed by the previous rapid growth of the manufacturing industry and the sharp change in the external environment [2]. - On the fundamental side, overseas miners are trying to maintain high lithium ore prices, but the overall lithium ore price is weak. The supply of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to decrease slightly, the demand growth rate of downstream enterprises will slow down, and the inventory is still accumulating, with an oversupplied market pattern [2]. - In the option market, the put - call ratio of positions decreased, the subscription position dominated, the market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increased [2]. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed that the double lines were below the 0 - axis, and the green bars slightly converged [2].