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新莱应材:2024年报&2025年一季报点评半导体业务持续放量,切入AIDC液冷构筑全新成长曲线-20250507

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The semiconductor business continues to grow, with significant new orders driven by major clients [3] - The company is benefiting from the U.S. sanctions, leading to accelerated domestic replacements in semiconductor valves and other components [6] - The establishment of a new subsidiary focused on liquid cooling solutions for data centers indicates a strategic expansion into a new growth area [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.08%, while Q1 2025 revenue was 673 million yuan, a decrease of 2.33% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 226 million yuan, down 4.05% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory impairment losses and tax expenses [4] - For Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 50.99 million yuan, a decline of 25.56% year-on-year [5] Market and Competitive Landscape - The domestic semiconductor gas/liquid path component market is projected to exceed 25 billion yuan by 2025, with significant opportunities in semiconductor valves and related components [7] - The current domestic market penetration for high-end valves is estimated to be below 15%, indicating substantial room for domestic replacements [7] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 3.197 billion yuan and 3.800 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.2% and 18.9% [9] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set at 306 million yuan and 401 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 35.3% and 31.0% [9]