美联储等待的降息信号

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady for three consecutive meetings amid growing economic concerns[5] - Three main obstacles to rate cuts include potential inflation from tariffs, stable employment data, and the limited impact of Q1 GDP decline[5][10] - The Fed's patience is primarily due to greater concerns about inflation than economic downturns[10] Group 2: Unemployment Rate as a Key Indicator - The unemployment rate is expected to be the primary factor influencing the Fed's decision to cut rates, rather than inflation[14] - Current unemployment fluctuates between 4.0% and 4.2%, showing no significant deterioration in the job market[6] - If tariffs lead to increased layoffs, the unemployment rate could rise significantly, prompting a policy shift from the Fed[18] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The risk of recession this year is slightly higher than that of stagflation, with a potential unemployment rate nearing 5% by year-end under neutral conditions[22] - Q1 GDP contracted at an annualized rate of -0.3%, influenced heavily by a 41.3% increase in imports, which detracted 5 percentage points from GDP growth[10][11] - Potential risk factors include geopolitical tensions, unexpected rises in international oil prices, and a weaker-than-expected job market[28]