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轻工制造:24&25Q1出口板块综述:关税影响显现,企业表现分化,结构成长公司延续靓丽表现
Xinda Securities·2025-05-08 08:23

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with leading companies showcasing advantages in overseas production capacity, while short-term order and profit impacts remain limited [8][3] - Despite the implementation of tariffs, leading companies are expanding their market share due to their overseas production advantages, with notable growth in companies like Jiangxin Home and Yongyi Co., Ltd. [3][4] - The overall revenue performance of the sector remains stable, with structural growth continuing to show strong results [3][4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Company Performance - The U.S. government has increased tariffs on Chinese goods, with rates rising to 145% in April 2025. However, the impact on short-term shipments is minimal due to temporary exemptions for overseas production [8][9] - Domestic production shows varied performance, with certain segments like thermal cups and functional sunshades maintaining stable order levels, while traditional industries face delays in shipments to the U.S. [8][9] Revenue and Growth Performance - The overall sector experienced steady growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with leading companies like Jiangxin Home and Yongyi Co., Ltd. achieving significant year-on-year growth rates of 49.8% and 30.9% respectively [3][10] - Other companies such as Zhejiang Natural and Yingke Recycling also reported strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 39.4% and 9.8% respectively [3][10] Profitability and Structural Growth - The overall gross margin performance is mixed, with some companies improving profitability through structural growth and optimization of customer and product mix [4][10] - Companies like Jiangxin Home and Tianzhen Co., Ltd. have shown improvements in gross margins, driven by brand strength and high-margin product offerings [4][10] - Some companies are facing declining gross margins due to insufficient short-term fixed cost amortization, particularly those with increasing overseas production capacity [4][10] Investment Recommendations - Continuous attention is recommended for companies with strong overseas layouts such as Jiangxin Home, Yongyi Co., Ltd., and Gongchuang Lawn, as well as those with low valuations and rapid overseas expansion like Zhongxin Co., Ltd. and Hars [4][10]