SEAMILD FOODS(002956) 国海证券·2025-05-13 13:43Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its market position and growth potential [8]. Core Insights - The company has maintained its leading position in the Chinese oat grain market for over 20 years, benefiting from the aging population and increasing health consciousness among younger consumers [7]. - Revenue for 2024 reached 1.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, with a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 15.4% [4]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 20% in 2025 and 2026, with net profit growth of 35% in 2025 and 24% in 2026 [7]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 656 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, and a net profit of 55 million yuan, up 21.2% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 41.3%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs [4]. - The company’s online sales grew over 17% year-on-year, with significant contributions from platforms like Douyin, where it achieved a GMV of 468 million yuan [4]. Product and Channel Development - The company has seen positive growth across all product categories, with compound oat products experiencing the fastest growth at 29% [4]. - Offline sales increased by 14% year-on-year, with snack wholesale channels growing nearly 50% [4]. - The company’s product structure is continuously upgrading, with successful launches in the oat + series and milk oat series, each exceeding 200 million yuan in sales [4]. Future Projections - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenues of 2.277 billion yuan, 2.722 billion yuan, and 3.219 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 180 million yuan, 224 million yuan, and 274 million yuan [6]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.81 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.23 yuan, respectively, with P/E ratios decreasing from 26.37 to 17.36 over the same period [6][7].