Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy (600419) 国海证券·2025-05-13 13:46Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is experiencing operational pressure and profit disturbances due to impairment issues, with a focus on the performance of Tianrun Dairy [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.804 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 69.26% to 44 million yuan [5][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in low-temperature dairy products compared to its room-temperature counterparts, driven by product innovation [5][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.59 billion yuan in the Xinjiang region, a decline of 6.31%, while revenues from outside Xinjiang are projected to grow by 9.25% to 13.65 billion yuan [5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is forecasted to be 16.8%, down 2.35 percentage points year-on-year, with a further decline to 14.63% in Q1 2025 [5][8]. - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit, projecting 73 million yuan in 2025, a 66% increase, and further growth to 179 million yuan in 2026, representing a 146% increase [7][8]. Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the company's stock price is 9.48 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 6.74 to 11.87 yuan [4]. - The company has underperformed the CSI 300 index over the past month, with a decline of 14.7% compared to a 3.9% increase in the index [4]. Forecast and Valuation - The report provides a forecast for the company’s revenue growth of 4% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 7% in 2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 66%, 146%, and 18% respectively [7][8]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.23 yuan for 2025, 0.56 yuan for 2026, and 0.66 yuan for 2027, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 41.80, 16.96, and 14.41 respectively [7][9].