中重科技（603135）：2024年报、2025Q1季报点评：聚焦海外突破，迎接业绩拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights a focus on overseas breakthroughs and anticipates an inflection point in performance for the company [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in intelligent metallurgy equipment, with short-term support from increasing overseas orders and long-term potential from domestic renewal cycles and global trends in self-built steel production capacity [7] Financial Performance Summary 1) Revenue & Profit: - For the full year 2024, revenue is projected at 960 million yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 60 million yuan, down 69.0% year-on-year [6] - In Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be 380 million yuan, up 39.3% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 50 million yuan, up 57.8% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 120 million yuan, up 0.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 10 million yuan, down 10% year-on-year [6] 2) Profitability: - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 15.8%, down 12.9 percentage points year-on-year; net profit margin is projected at 5.9%, down 10.4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin is expected to be 19.8%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, showing some recovery [6] 3) Expense Analysis: - The total expense ratio for 2024 is projected at 6.2%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with financial expenses increasing due to reduced interest income [6] - In Q1 2025, the total expense ratio is expected to be 11.4%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Business Segmentation - In 2024, revenue from production lines is expected to be 670 million yuan, down 24.5% year-on-year; revenue from spare parts is projected at 280 million yuan, up 26.1% year-on-year [6] - For overseas markets, revenue is expected to be 100 million yuan in 2024, down 73% year-on-year, but with a gross margin of 30.5%, indicating long-term potential [6] Order Outlook - The company secured new orders worth 650 million yuan in 2024, with over 60% from overseas markets, establishing a foundation for performance recovery in 2025 [8] - In Q1 2025, the company signed a contract worth 370 million yuan for a hot-rolled plate production line in Nigeria, indicating ongoing deepening of overseas expansion [8]