Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a decrease of 4.5% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - The adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - Despite the short-term performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, the company maintains confidence in its three premium brand assets and anticipates a successful listing in the US to enhance liquidity [5] Regional Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, revenue by region showed: - Asia: $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, with India showing a constant currency growth of 2.6% due to strategic adjustments, while South Korea and China experienced declines [2] - North America: $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a 5.2% decline after excluding the impact of wholesalers' early purchases in Q4 2024 [2] - Europe: $180 million, flat year-on-year, with a 4.4% increase on a constant currency basis, driven by increasing brand penetration [2] - Latin America: $50 million, down 10.3% year-on-year, flat on a constant currency basis [2] Brand Performance Summary - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025: - Samsonite: $410 million, down 7.4% year-on-year - TUMI: $190 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, showing relative resilience with constant currency growth in Asia, Europe, and Latin America [3] - American Tourister: $130 million, down 14.0% year-on-year [3] Channel Performance Summary - Revenue by channel in Q1 2025: - Wholesale: $490 million, down 8.9% year-on-year - DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) retail: $220 million, down 5.5% year-on-year - DTC e-commerce: $80 million, down 2.5% year-on-year [3] - The company opened 9 new stores (19 opened, 10 closed) to reach a total of 1,128 stores, demonstrating confidence in development despite weak retail conditions [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Q1 2025 gross margin was 59.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin Asia sales [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin was 6.1%, down 3.6 percentage points, reflecting performance pressure from macroeconomic fluctuations [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $350 million, and $400 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9, 8, and 7 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]
新秀丽（01910）：25Q1业绩短期承压，静待需求修复