maccura(SZ:300463)2025-05-16 06:58Investment Rating - The investment rating for Maccura Biotechnology is maintained as BUY with a target price of RMB13.54, indicating a potential upside of 14% from the closing price of RMB11.90 as of May 15, 2025 [6][7]. Core Insights - Maccura's 2024 revenue and attributable net profit were RMB2,549 million and RMB127 million, respectively, reflecting declines of 12.0% and 59.4% year-on-year, primarily due to short-term policy headwinds and adjustments in the agency business [1][6]. - The proprietary business revenue showed resilience, increasing by 1.8% year-on-year to RMB1,913 million, suggesting robust growth in the main business segment [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025, revenue and attributable net profit fell by 17.2% and 80.1% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing transformation efforts and increased marketing spending [1]. Revenue Growth and Market Share - Maccura's CL reagents revenue in 2024 grew by 8% year-on-year to RMB1,029 million, supported by enhanced market recognition and the installation of 224 bioassay automation lines and 1,352 immunoassay analyzers [2]. - The company is expected to ship nearly 2,000 new CL analyzers in 2025, which will likely drive in-hospital reagent consumption and contribute to steady revenue growth and market share gains [2]. Segment Performance - The biochemistry segment experienced a revenue decline of 13.5% year-on-year in 2024, totaling RMB499 million, mainly due to price adjustments following inter-provincial VBP [3]. - Clinical testing revenue increased by 21.8% year-on-year to RMB214 million, with expectations for rapid growth in 2025 due to successful market penetration of clinical testing equipment [3]. - The agency business saw a significant revenue drop of 37.6% year-on-year to RMB612 million, indicating ongoing challenges in this segment [3]. Earnings Forecasts and Valuation - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been lowered by 44%, 46%, and 0% to RMB0.49, RMB0.58, and RMB0.70, respectively, due to short-term disruptions and increased marketing and R&D spending [4]. - The valuation of the IVD business is set at 28x 2025E PE, while the agency business is valued at 24x 2025E PE, compared to peers' averages of 29x and 24x [4].