Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances (002705) 华泰金融·2025-05-16 04:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.47, indicating a potential upside of approximately 11% from the closing price of RMB 14.86 as of May 15, 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - Xinbao's revenue and net profit for 2024 were RMB 16.821 billion and RMB 1.053 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.84% and 7.75%. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 10.36% and a net profit increase of 43.02%, driven by strong export growth. However, the increase in US tariffs may pressure performance in the second quarter of 2025 [1][5][7]. - The company has extensive experience in product planning, industrial design, technological innovation, and rapid mass production, which is expected to help maintain resilience in overseas sales [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Xinbao's gross profit margin (GPM) decreased by 1.82 percentage points to 20.91% due to a higher proportion of low-GPM exports. In the first quarter of 2025, GPM improved by 0.5 percentage points to 22.42% [6]. - The overall expense ratio decreased by 1.08 percentage points in 2024, with sales and management expense ratios declining by 0.36 and 0.94 percentage points, respectively. However, in the first quarter of 2025, the overall expense ratio increased by 0.18 percentage points due to reduced interest income and foreign exchange gains [6]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 17.689 billion, with a growth rate of 5.16%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.163 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 10.44% [14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1.43, with subsequent years showing continued growth [14]. Market Position - Xinbao's domestic sales faced challenges, with a decline of 4.5% in 2024 and a further decline of 4.9% in the first quarter of 2025. However, there was a slight recovery in retail sales for small kitchen appliances in early 2025, indicating potential for future growth [10][11]. - The company proposed a dividend of RMB 0.45 per share for 2024 and initiated a stock buyback plan in early 2025, reflecting an enhancement in shareholder returns [12].