QIANHE(603027) 浙商证券·2025-05-18 02:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry [4][7] Core Views - The company experienced revenue pressure in 2024, with a total revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. However, there was a slight improvement in profitability, with a net profit of 510 million yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year [1][2] - The revenue decline in Q1 2025 was less severe compared to previous quarters, indicating a potential stabilization in sales [2] - The company has optimized its product structure and benefited from lower raw material costs, leading to improved profitability in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 37.2% and a net margin of 16.7%. In Q4 2024, the gross margin improved to 40.1% and the net margin to 20.7% [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 38.9% and the net margin was 19.3%, reflecting ongoing improvements in profitability [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from soy sauce and vinegar was 1.96 billion yuan and 370 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.8% and -12.5%. Sales volume for soy sauce increased by 1.3%, while vinegar saw a decline of 9.5% [2] - Online and offline sales in 2024 were 600 million yuan and 2.43 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 4.9% and 4.0% [2] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.24 billion yuan, 3.53 billion yuan, and 3.83 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.4%, 8.8%, and 8.7% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 550 million yuan, 618 million yuan, and 687 million yuan, with growth rates of 6.9%, 12.5%, and 11.0% [4][6]