TONGWEI CO.,LTD(600438) 华安证券·2025-05-19 08:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its cost leadership position while facing significant operational pressure due to declining prices across the photovoltaic industry [4][6] - The company has achieved a high-purity silicon annual production capacity of over 900,000 tons and solar cell production capacity exceeding 150 GW in 2024 [4] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with significant advancements in technology expected to enhance production capabilities [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 919.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 70.39 billion yuan [8][9] - The forecast for 2025 indicates a revenue of 666 billion yuan, with a projected net loss of 34.7 billion yuan, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [7][9] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 6.4%, with a significant drop in profitability reflected in the negative net profit margins for 2025 [9][10] Market Position and Production Capacity - The company holds a market share of approximately 30% in the silicon material segment, leading globally with a sales volume of 467,600 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.76% [4][5] - In the battery segment, the company expects to sell 87.68 GW in 2024, achieving a global market share of about 14% [4] - The company’s module sales are projected to reach 45.71 GW in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.93% [5] Cost Management and Technological Advancements - The company has successfully reduced its comprehensive electricity consumption and silicon consumption to 46 kWh and 1.04 kg respectively, with cash costs for silicon production dropping to below 27,000 yuan per ton [6] - The company is advancing its TNC technology to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with expectations for mainstream power levels to increase by over 25W by 2025 [6] - The company’s HJT pilot line is set to commence production in June 2024, with the highest module power reaching 790.8W [6]