航空运输月度专题：票价跌幅明显收窄，看好旺季供需改善-20250520

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in ticket prices, with expectations for continued recovery in ticket prices during the peak travel season [3][5]. - The demand for travel is expected to remain strong during the peak season, supported by high passenger load factors and a resurgence in travel demand during holidays [3][14]. - Key airlines to focus on include Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [2][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the airline industry, driven by sustained high passenger load factors and strong travel demand during the May Day holiday [14]. - It emphasizes the potential for ticket prices to recover as supply and demand dynamics improve [14]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in ticket prices has significantly narrowed, with an average domestic ticket price of 847 RMB, down 10.0% year-on-year as of May 18, 2025 [5][27]. - The average ticket price has shown a trend of narrowing declines in recent weeks, with a year-on-year decline of only 3.0% in May [5][27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained by issues such as supply chain delays affecting aircraft deliveries and limited short-term increases in utilization rates due to engine maintenance [3][14]. - The demand side is bolstered by strong travel during the Spring Festival, Qingming Festival, and May Day holiday, indicating a continuous growth in demand [3][14]. 4. Operational Performance of Airlines - In April 2025, domestic airlines saw a year-on-year increase in capacity and turnover, with passenger load factors exceeding levels from 2019 [47]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding 5 aircraft in April [48]. 5. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation fuel has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 19.0% in May [41]. - Brent crude oil prices have also shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.6% as of May 16, 2025 [41].