瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250521

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with support around 4900 yuan/ton. The supply of PVC may increase passively due to the "alkali - for - chlorine" strategy of chlor - alkali enterprises as caustic soda prices strengthen. Although domestic downstream开工率 has rebounded due to macro - level benefits, the sluggish real estate market still drags down demand growth. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by BIS certification, anti - dumping tax uncertainties, and the rainy season, while the second - round trade negotiation between Vietnam and the US has started. The price of calcium carbide may fluctuate due to the game between cost - related production cuts of calcium carbide enterprises and downstream device maintenance, and the ethylene market remains stalemated with prices likely to fluctuate slightly within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4969 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 861,597 lots, up 169,500 lots. The open interest is 941,722 lots, down 1317 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 725,675 lots, down 22,727 lots; the short positions are 750,689 lots, down 18,891 lots; and the net long positions are - 25,014 lots, down 3836 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4835.38 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5080 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4895.62 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 775 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 119 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region is 2850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the northern China region is 2823.33 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in the northwestern China region is down 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is not provided. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price is 538 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 567 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the EDC CFR Far East intermediate price is 162 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 158 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.7%, down 2.64 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 77.69%, down 3.64 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 77.73%, down 0.02 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.71 tons, down 1.27 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region is 35.16 tons, down 1.58 tons, and in the South China region is 4.55 tons, up 0.31 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6382.46 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 613,705.44 million square meters, up 7733.44 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 11002.02 billion yuan, up 4891.31 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 19.14%, up 0.08 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.47%, up 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.85%, up 1.31 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.8%, up 1.25 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On May 21st, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou remained stable compared to the previous day, ranging from 4750 to 4870 yuan/ton. From May 10th to May 16th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.70%, a 2.64% decrease from the previous period. As of May 15th, the PVC social inventory (47 samples) decreased by 3.07% to 64.15 tons month - on - month and 26.96% year - on - year [3].