Guoxin Securities·2025-05-27 01:49Key Recommendations - The report highlights Changqing Group (002616.SZ) as a leading biomass power generation company, emphasizing its stable growth and collaboration with the Zhongke system to drive digital and intelligent transformation [6][7]. - The company transitioned from manufacturing to focusing on biomass resource utilization, achieving a total installed capacity of 491MW by the end of 2024, ranking third in the industry [6][7]. Industry Overview - The biomass power generation industry is currently facing operational challenges, particularly due to subsidy arrears and rising raw material costs. Despite this, Changqing Group has managed to achieve growth through refined management practices [6][7]. - As of the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of biomass power generation in China reached 45.99 million kilowatts, with an increase of 1.85 million kilowatts [6]. Competitive Advantages - Changqing Group's competitive edge lies in its risk management and operational efficiency. The company closely monitors policy changes and has successfully included 13 projects in the national subsidy list [7]. - The company applies its manufacturing experience to enhance the operational efficiency of its environmental projects, establishing rigorous standards for project expansion and fuel procurement [7]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism for Changqing Group due to its partnership with Zhongke, which is expected to optimize the shareholder structure and support digital transformation initiatives [7]. - The decline in coal prices since 2025 is anticipated to lower raw material costs, with a projected 45% year-on-year increase in performance for Q1 2025 [7]. - The expansion of the carbon market in March 2025 is expected to increase demand for carbon trading, potentially providing additional revenue streams for the company [7]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts that Changqing Group's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 280 million, 308 million, and 334 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 29.2%, 10.2%, and 8.4% [8]. - The estimated stock value for Changqing Group is projected to be between 7.23 and 7.60 yuan per share, indicating a premium of 26.6% to 33.1% over the current stock price [8].