maccura(300463) 国信证券·2025-05-27 09:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][26]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on the separation of agency business and enhancing its own product development, which is reflected in the increase of self-developed product revenue from 50.03% to 75.07% over the past five years [2][10]. - The company is currently facing performance pressure due to market adjustments and the implementation of centralized procurement policies, with a projected revenue of 2.549 billion in 2024, down 11.98%, and a net profit of 127 million, down 59.44% [2][10]. - The company is making significant progress in the deployment of intelligent laboratory solutions and has seen a 59.21% increase in overseas revenue, reaching 162 million in 2024 [3][21]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.549 billion (down 11.98%) and a net profit of 127 million (down 59.44%), with a projected revenue of 2.616 billion in 2025 [6][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 55.1%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the gross margin is expected to recover to 56.8% in Q1 2025 [4][22]. - The company’s operating cash flow remained robust, with a net cash flow of 638 million in 2024, despite a 29.70% decrease [24]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company’s revenue from agency products was 612 million (down 37.64%), while self-developed product revenue was 1.913 billion (up 1.75%) [3][16]. - The revenue from immunological reagents was 1.029 billion (up 8.04%), biochemical reagents was 499 million (down 13.53%), and clinical testing reagents was 214 million (up 21.77%) [3][16]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its earnings forecast for 2025-2026 downwards due to the impact of centralized procurement policies, with expected net profits of 273 million and 354 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][26]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.45, 0.58, and 0.69 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) of 26, 20, and 17 times [4][26].