海天味业（603288）：短期经营稳健，长期竞争力巩固

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of Rmb 50.40, indicating a potential upside from the current price of Rmb 44.78 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable short-term operations while solidifying its long-term competitive strength through product upgrades and new product penetration [3][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at Rmb 29.7 billion, Rmb 32.8 billion, and Rmb 36.3 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 11% [13]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue for the company is projected to grow from Rmb 26.9 billion in 2024 to Rmb 36.3 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [8][13]. - Net profit is expected to increase from Rmb 6.4 billion in 2024 to Rmb 8.7 billion in 2027, reflecting a consistent growth rate of around 11% annually [8][13]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company will focus on upgrading classic product categories such as soy sauce and oyster sauce while also expanding into health-oriented products like organic and gluten-free options [3][9]. - New product categories, including cooking wine and vinegar, have shown significant growth, with year-on-year revenue increases of 16.8% and 20.8% in early 2025 [3][9]. Supply Chain and Sales Network - The company is transforming its supply chain to enhance flexibility and responsiveness to market demands, which is expected to improve market share [10][11]. - Online sales channels have seen a remarkable growth of 39.8% year-on-year, contributing to a more robust sales network [10][11]. International Expansion - The company's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange supports its internationalization strategy, with plans to tap into overseas markets with strong demand for condiments [12][5]. Financial Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the company are 36X for 2025, 32X for 2026, and 29X for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [13].