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海光信息(688041):换股吸收合并中科曙光,强强联合优势互补

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is seen as a strong union that will complement each other's advantages, optimizing the industrial layout from chips to software and systems [1][2]. - Haiguang Information has a leading market share in domestic server CPUs at 53.6% and over 30% in the domestic GPU market, indicating strong competitive positioning [1]. - The expected financial performance shows significant growth, with projected net profits of 30.66 billion, 43.57 billion, and 59.92 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Haiguang Information is projected to achieve revenue of 91.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%, with a net profit of 19.31 billion, up 52.87% [3][4]. - Zhongke Shuguang is expected to report revenue of 131.48 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.4%, but with a net profit of 19.11 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.1% [3]. - The forecasted revenue growth rates for Haiguang Information are 50.9% for 2025, 39.9% for 2026, and 36.0% for 2027 [4][9]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Indicators - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Haiguang Information are 0.83, 1.32, 1.87, and 2.58 for the years 2024 to 2027, respectively [4][9]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 164 in 2024 to 53 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [4][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 63.72% to 64.71% over the forecast period [8][9].