摩根大通：中国医疗保健-2025 年全球中国峰会要点

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to Mindray, Genscript, and Dashenlin, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the healthcare sector [9][21]. Core Insights - The domestic market recovery for Mindray is on track despite macro challenges, with overseas sales expected to grow by approximately 15% in FY25. The company anticipates meaningful growth in the second half of 2025 due to increased hospital tender activities and a government funding injection of around Rmb 20 billion for medical equipment replacement [2]. - Snibe expects a recovery in its IVD business starting in the second half of 2025, with guidance for single-digit growth in China sales for FY25 and double-digit growth anticipated in 4Q25 and the following year [3]. - Genscript's ProBio business is projected to drive future growth, with no changes in guidance despite geopolitical developments. The company expects to reach breakeven once sales hit US$150 million to US$160 million [4][8]. - Dashenlin is positioned as a top pick in the pharmacy space, forecasting a 25% profit growth and around 10% revenue growth for FY25, alongside a significant store expansion plan [9]. Summary by Company Mindray - Domestic market recovery is progressing, with overseas sales growth projected at 15% for FY25. Management expects significant growth in the second half of 2025 due to increased hospital tender activities and a Rmb 20 billion funding injection from the government [2]. Snibe - The company anticipates a recovery in its IVD business in 2H25, with a projected single-digit growth in China sales for FY25. The overall China IVD market size is expected to shrink by approximately 10% in 2025 but recover to over 5% growth in the long term [3]. Genscript - The ProBio business is expected to drive future growth, with management maintaining guidance despite geopolitical challenges. The company anticipates breakeven at US$150 million to US$160 million in sales [4][8]. Dashenlin - The company is expected to achieve a 25% profit growth and around 10% revenue growth for FY25, with a net increase of approximately 2,300 stores planned. Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate, benefiting leading chains like Dashenlin [9].