HAIDILAO(06862) 民生证券·2024-02-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao, with a target price of 14.06 HKD [3]. Core Views - Haidilao's 2023 revenue is expected to be no less than 41.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of at least 33.3%, driven by increased customer flow and improved operational performance due to reduced pandemic disruptions [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be no less than 4.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of at least 168.79%, primarily due to improved table turnover rates and operational efficiency [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its existing store operations rather than aggressive expansion, with only 12 new stores opened in 2023 compared to 28 in 2022 [2]. - Haidilao is exploring new business avenues through sub-brands and personalized stores, such as the budget-friendly "Hailao" and high-end bistro "Youjishan," as well as specialized hotpot stores targeting specific consumer scenarios [2]. - The report suggests that Haidilao's internal reforms and post-pandemic recovery in dine-in traffic could lead to a gradual return to stable operations, enhancing performance elasticity [2]. Financial Summary - Expected revenue for 2023 is 41,569 million RMB, with a growth rate of 33.9% [3]. - Projected net profit for 2023 is 4,421 million RMB, with a growth rate of 169.8% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.79 RMB for 2023, with a PE ratio of 16 [3]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 5,370 million RMB and 6,093 million RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13 and 12 [3].