中国物价2024年1月数据点评：波折修复

CPI Inflation - January CPI inflation recorded -0.8%, weaker than the market expectation of -0.5%[2] - Food prices were the main drag, with a year-on-year decline of 5.9%, contributing to a 1.15 percentage point drag on CPI inflation[15] - Core inflation rose by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase since August 2023, driven by service prices[15] PPI Inflation - January PPI inflation was -2.5%, in line with market expectations, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2%[2] - Upstream PPI stabilized due to the stabilization of commodity prices, but midstream and downstream prices continued to decline[20] - Life materials PPI fell by 1.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, continuing to underperform CPI[17] Structural Trends - Service prices outperformed goods prices, with service prices rising by 0.4% month-on-month, in line with seasonal levels[15] - Upstream prices stabilized due to the impact of commodity prices, while midstream and downstream prices remained weak due to oversupply[20] Outlook - CPI is expected to recover quickly as pig prices have likely bottomed out and core inflation has returned to seasonal levels[21] - PPI is expected to bottom out and rise as downstream demand further recovers[21]